An Empirical Study on The Default Risk of Kaisa' s Real Estate Industry Before and After COVID-19

In 2019, when COVID-19 outbroke, the real estate economy, an important component of must be hit to some extent. Affected by epidemic and financing situation, Kaisa enterprise recently suffered a credit risk. The debt was increasing ratings were decreasing. stock suspended for long time. This paper used financial data between 2019 2021 provided Eastern Wealth statements measure risk with KMV model. empirical results illustrated that default probability relatively high increases extent after outbroke epidemic. Between 2020 2021, classified as CCC rate according Standard & Poor's rating table. standard confirmed had To resolve prevent risks, needs improve liquidity funds, carry out reasonable awareness management.